The International Situation – the reckless nature of Chinese nuclear proliferation to the Pakistan army had altered the balance of power in the Indian continent. India used its superior air force to good effect against Pakistan and quickly redeployed on the eastern border to blunt the mobilization of China’s PLA. India also used its long coastline to full advantage by instituting a policy of search-and-seizure of commercial shipping to further pressurize the Chinese economy.
Joint operations by the Indian armed forces in Ormara and Skardu created a strategic encirclement of the Pakistan army—the final blow being the capture of Gilgit airfield. The Chinese were permitted to scale down their involvement in the war by the Indians, who promised to protect Chinese investments in Baluchistan, and by the Americans, who quietly buried the story of Chinese nuclear proliferation.
The capture of three nuclear artillery shells at Pasni, by the Americans and their Pakistani collaborators, marked the beginning of the end of the Pakistani nuclear program. All nuclear material and nuclear facilities, which had escaped destruction under Operation Kartikeya and Operation Janjira, were secured by the Americans with similar collaboration from the Pakistani general staff.
The Chinese remained ignorant of the capture of their nuclear artillery shells on the Baluchistan coast. To tackle India’s revelations on the proliferation of those weapons the Politburo ordered an “internal investigation” into these allegations. As a result of this investigation some low-level scientists and PLA personnel were forced to resign—the politburo revealed to the party that only designs of the said weapons had been stolen by unnamed persons due to negligence. The Americans backed this up by admitting that the Pakistani scientists certainly had the ability to manufacture nuclear artillery warheads with their own nuclear material. The artillery shells recovered at Pasni, which contained Chinese nuclear material, would be used later to pressurize the Chinese on the North Korean question.
India’s skilful conduct of the military operations, the minimal loss of life, and the prevention of a nuclear holocaust, would have ensured it a permanent place in the UN Security Council. However despite US support the idea was postponed until the world could see how the Indians and their allies handled the future status of the Pakistani territories.
Some hawkish proponents of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty used this entire episode to target India! They claimed that the dangerous proliferation of destabilizing weapons had occurred because of the unmonitored cooperation between a member of the NPT and a non-member. Hence nuclear cooperation between India, the US, and other NPT members should cease until India agreed to sign the NPT! Fortunately this suggestion of the cold war dinosaurs was rejected by a low-level functionary of the US State Department.
The Pakistan Territories – the desertions by the divisional commanders in Baluchistan crowned by the dramatic landing of Lt. General Khattak in Indian-liberated Ormara, was imitated initially in other regions of the doomed country. The FCNA commander in the Gilgit-Baltistan region, which had been callously named as the Northern Areas by the occupying Pakistanis, deserted to the Indians with his family. His example was followed by the Punjabi and Pasthun soldiery, which tore of their uniforms and mingled with the civilian population in the main towns until they could find a safe way to escape to their homes. The local Dard, Balti, and Shia populace supported the advance of Indian army.
In the months that followed, the region was declared independent but with close military and economic links with mainland India. The descendant of the former ruler of J&K state, of which this region had been a part, declared that their conquest by his forefathers had been purely a military feat of the Dogra soldiery, meant to secure trade routes. He further stated that a new relationship was required with the region even as the Indian army and air force maintained military bases in Skardu and Gilgit. Preparations for a treaty between the new country and India were made while elections, supervised and assisted by the Indian Election Commission, propelled a new political leadership to power.
This created an opportunity for the re-organization of J&K state with the Mirpur-Muzzafrabad belt joining the new state of Jammu, which had always been the economic engine of J&K. The Hindu population of Jammu occupied a solid block of land and was united by a common language and culture while the Muslims were divided into numerous ethnic and linguistic groups. Moreover the Muslims of the Jammu province had always faced discrimination from the Kashmiri elite and had cultural links with the Hindus of Jammu. With the loss of power the Kashmiri elite reached out to their Hindu brethren, who had been driven out from the valley by the Islamists, and tried to rebuild the tourism and fruit economy.
Control over the Mangla Dam gave the Indians great leverage over the Pakistani province of Punjab. However desertions by Pakistani commanders here were stemmed by the example of the Chief of Army Staff who refused to flee—he had decided to fight for the remainder of the country and thus secure his place in history. Unfortunately the Indians refused to enter the Punjab until they had the political support of its people—there was no chance of fighting a bloody guerrilla war against them. Northern and central Pakistan remained in political suspension for several months until the situation in the neighboring regions was clear.
In the course of the fighting Indian formations had penetrated into lower Sindh but were keeping clear of the main towns and population centers. The chain of command in the Karachi-based 5 Corps was shattered by the desertion of the general commanding the 18th Infantry Division. The 16th Infantry Division, previously stranded along the coastal highway in Baluchistan, had broken up into groups of ragged and starving soldiers that either surrendered to the Ormara Division or died fighting against the ferocious militia fighters. The Corps Commander ordered a hasty withdrawal of the 18 Div formations from the frontlines and into the main cities—here again the Indians did not enter the cities until they could be sure of political support.
The majority inhabitants of these cities were Mohajirs, Pashtuns, and Punjabis—all engaged in business, trade, and transport. These classes did not see any benefit in an independent Sindh and they continued to support the presence of the Pakistan Army. Moreover they provided foot soldiers for the radical Sunni groups in their campaign against the Shias. The political leadership of the Mohajirs and the Sindhis could not muster support to challenge these groupings at least in the cities. The lady opposition leader based in Britain gave up her subtle calls for Sindh’s long life and expressed hopes of becoming the prime minister of a moth-eaten Pakistan defended now by a much weaker army.
Here again, as in Punjab and NWFP, developments in the crucial territory of Baluchistan created the outlines for their political future.
Azad Baluchistan: the militias had seized control over the towns and cities, while the roads and open country were dominated by each Baloch and Pashtun tribe in its respective sphere of influence. The tribesmen were engaged in gathering together all the ordnance, weaponry, and transport of the army and FC—most of the scattered enemy personnel had been taken prisoner while the units that held together were given safe passage to their own homes.
Command and control, intelligence information, and transport facilities were provided to the militia leaders, to the political representatives, and to the tribal chieftains by the Indians and the Americans. The latter, while securing material from nuclear and missile facilities, had also sent air and army units to occupy Dalbandin, Samungli, and Chaman. The Indians, on their part, had landed in Khuzdar and had sent a naval task group to occupy the Sonmiani Bay. Control over Gwadar became a joint enterprise between the Indians and the Americans.
Quetta though was ruined by the unchecked looting and infighting between the Pasthun lashkars, the former army and FC personnel, and the various student bodies representing different ethnic and religious groupings. It was several weeks before peace was established with the militias and student groups marking out their own quarters in the city. The members of the provincial assembly returned to the capital and met the militia leaders in the thoroughly ransacked premises—all were agreed in giving a leadership role to the old Baloch Sardar Nasrullah. The venerable leader sprung a surprise by nominating the Pashtun Malik Ahmed Khan as the provisional President of Baluchistan.
The new president immediately dissolved the assembly and ordered elections on the same electoral seats to the new parliament within six months—by that time it was hoped that assembly building and other government sites would have been repaired. The choice of a Pashtun for president was happy news to the Pashtun militias dominating the city of Quetta—it was also welcome news to the various Baloch Sardars that one of their own was in charge.
In his first radio broadcast Ahmed Khan outlined the program for the political future of the country and appealed to police and administration officials to stay at their posts and cooperate with the militias and tribal chieftains until a central government was in place. He also declared that outsiders who had made a home in Baluchistan were welcome to stay on; since the Baloch and Pashtun fight had been against the Pakistani rulers, not the Pakistani people. Furthermore the Malik declared that people were regarded as assets; and the more diverse those people the better since Baloch tribes and Pashtun families would forget their internal quarrels as long as there were Sindhis, Punjabis, and Mohajirs living in their midst.
This declaration had an impact on the neighboring provinces—it was seen to be a wise and generous stance since there were people of different ethnicities living in all provinces. With the precedent set in Baluchsitan, where outsiders were free to live and prosper, Punjabis trapped in Sindh breathed easier. The Sindhi nationalists and the Mohajirs now became open to the idea of independence with outside support—given the lay of the land Indian military bases were necessary to thwart the Punjabi pressure from the north. Punjab too felt the pressure to tolerate non-Punjabi populations; particularly the Baloch and Seraiki population in southern Punjab, which could always secede to Sindh or Baluchsitan.
The international community welcomed the declaration since it suggested that the rule of law would be enforced—International organizations like the UN, the Red Crescent, and the WHO quickly restarted all their aid programs. Recognition for the new country though was left pending till the elections.
The most pressing need of Baluchistan was money. As a Pakistani province, Baluchistan never had control over its own assets and had been entirely dependent on the federal government even for the salaries of its employees! In the current situation money was abundant among the local people, the Sardars, and the overseas Baloch—all that the Baluchistan provisional government had were assets in the shape of mineral and metal deposits and the oil and gas fields. Each of these assets had been occupied by the tribal armies in whose lands they were situated—the most critical of these was Sui.
The Bugti tribe had brought the gas field under its control and, after the inevitable looting of the buildings and the imprisonment of the DSG personnel, had immediately shut the supply of gas to Punjab and Sindh. After several weeks the situation became so intolerable that the Pakistani President had to appeal to the international community to secure the energy needs of the industry and the households in Punjab and Sindh. India, the US, Oman, Iran and Afghanistan among others had established contacts with Malik Ahmed Khan and Sardar Nasrullah, and had also provided some money to the provisional government. Under their advice and after several discussions it was decided that all national assets should be privatized—this decision of course was left to the discretion of the future elected parliament.
70% of each national asset, a mine or a gas or power company, would be privatized. However to keep such assets in Baloch hands, 10% would be marked for the common Baloch to be purchased as shares, 10% would be sold to the Baloch Sardar in whose territory the assets were located, 20% would be sold to other Sardars and wealthy individuals in Baluchistan, and 30% would be auctioned to international companies. With only the remaining 30% belonging to the government, the lure of independent management control would entice international companies and funds to invest in the asset while keeping its ownership firmly in Baluchistan’s hands.
The Sardars were given the option of exchanging their surplus agricultural and grazing land in lieu of these shares. As a further incentive they were also given the option of nominating their sons or nephews to be members of the board of directors in each privatized company. The government would sell the land surrendered to farmers and shepherds at concession rates. After this arrangement gas from Sui and other fields began to be pumped once again into mainland Pakistan—but that country had to pay valuable foreign exchange to buy this gas since Baluchistan had now refused to accept Pakistani rupees.
The numerous militias were given the choice of becoming part of the new army or to stay at their posts and be commissioned as paramilitary troops. Some of their leaders were given provisional military ranks pending their further training and education—the army chief for the new country was a Baloch Brigadier serving in the Oman army. At this time India requested that the Jinnah Naval Base in Ormara be renamed the Mir Chakar Naval Base—this timely suggestion was happily accepted by the Baluchistan government. Naval and air bases for India were approved at Ormara and Khuzdar but the Americans were given only temporary basing rights for six months—after all it was mostly American weaponry that had been used to suppress the Baloch resistance by the Pakistanis and those memories were still fresh in Baloch minds.
Durrakh Shambani had emerged in all this time as an important and recognized political leader—this was an unexpected benefit of his submission to the tribal jirga for the death of his cousin. At the jirga evidence was presented of the accidental nature of Sachlay’s death and revelations of his underhanded dealings with the Pakistanis shocked the leaders of the Shambani tribe. Durrakh’s leadership qualities blossomed in that gathering—it became known to all that he had contacts with the Indians and would be able to do much for his tribe. And the fact that a middle-class urban man had agreed to submit to the justice of the jirga proved to the warlike tribesmen that the future of their culture and way of life would be safe in Durrakh’s capable hands.
Durrakh offered to wed the widow Meemal, his childhood love, and be a devoted father to Sachlay’s children—after all they were of his blood. The middle-aged militia leader now became a politician and joined the party of his parent Bugti tribe. Due to his popularity he was nominated to be the youthful leader by the Bugti Sardar, who was then negotiating for the future of the Sui gas plant.
After the elections, where Durrakh’s party secured only 20% of the parliamentary seats, an alliance with the Pashtun student party and with the support of several militia leaders who had stood as independents, Durrakh Shambani achieved a political coup by becoming the Prime Minister of Baluchistan.
However the Bugti Sardar was none too happy with the result. Power had slipped out of his family’s hands—sure they still had money and a secure financial future but what would their forefathers say if they gave up power so tamely? With this thought the Sardar nominated his nephew to stand for the post of president of the party—challenging Durrakh’s claim to two separate posts. At the same time the Sardar demanded a greater share in the assets of Sui since his people had shed their blood in protecting this valuable asset for all these years.
Reading of this remarkable news at his home in Pune, Colonel Prahlad Chitnis looked at his guest Hemant Upadhyay and shook his head, “Life is a never ending struggle!”
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